From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, October 6, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2018 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Oct). III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Oct 069 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/024-025/035-014/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 35/35/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 75/75/50
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