Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, October 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 069
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  017/024-025/035-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/75/50

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