Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 5, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 05/0759Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to major storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 069
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  005/005-017/024-025/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/35/35
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/75/75

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