From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 5, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 05/0759Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to major storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (08 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 069
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-017/024-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/35/35
Major-severe storm 01/20/20
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/75/75
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