From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z onIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 12/0438Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1911 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (), quiet to unsettled levels on day two ( ) and quiet levels on day three ( ). III. Event probabilities Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Sep 070 Predicted 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 024/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 010/012-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/25/20
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