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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (12 Sep, 13
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 11/1825Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 10/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 366 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 069
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  028/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  012/016-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/45

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