From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z onIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 11/1825Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 10/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 366 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one () and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep). III. Event probabilities Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Sep 069 Predicted 070/070/069 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 015/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 028/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 012/016-011/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/55/45
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