From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 9, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 068
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 011/012-023/035-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/10
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 65/80/70
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