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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 9, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Sep), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           09 Sep 068

Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 070/070/070

90 Day Mean        09 Sep 070


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  011/012-023/035-012/015


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/35

Minor Storm           25/35/30

Major-severe storm    10/25/10

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/05/05

Minor Storm           25/15/20

Major-severe storm    65/80/70


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