From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, September 9, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 07/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1086 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (10 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 069
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 006/005-011/012-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/20/35
Major-severe storm 01/05/25
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/55/80
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