Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, September 7, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 07/1230Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 07/0601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0559Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1884 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Sep 068

Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        07 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  008/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    30/20/20

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