From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, September 7, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 07/1230Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 07/0601Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0559Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1884 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 068
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
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