Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 September 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 6, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 06/0008Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1298 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Sep 068

Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        06 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  009/012-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/20/15

Minor Storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    40/30/20

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