From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, August 6, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 05/2207Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 06/1438Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 069
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15
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