From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, August 4, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 03/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Aug, 06 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 070
Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 04 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 009/010-010/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/30
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