From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 11/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 073
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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