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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, June 10, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 10/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1939 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 070
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  006/005-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25

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