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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 May 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 15/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15763 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 May), unsettled to active levels on day two (18 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 May).

III.  Event probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 May 070
Predicted   17 May-19 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  013/018-011/014-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/35

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