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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, May 13, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 13/0001Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13623 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 071
Predicted   14 May-16 May 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        13 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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