Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 May 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, May 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 12/1226Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29616 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 May, 15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 070
Predicted   13 May-15 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 May 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  019/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10

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