Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 April 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 12/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22185 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 070
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  012/015-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/30

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