From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 12, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 12/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/0959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 070
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/30
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