From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 11/0817Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 068
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 015/018-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/50
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