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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 10/1739Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1937 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 069
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  015/020-015/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/50/50

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