Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 March 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, March 12, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 12/0054Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 068
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  008/008-015/018-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/55/55

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