Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 January 2018

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 1, 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 01/1537Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 01/0253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 01/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 639 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 069
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  009/012-006/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/10

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