From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, December 7, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 07/1156Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3752 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 068
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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