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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 05/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 04/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/0901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 365 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 068
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  024/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  015/018-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    55/35/20

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