From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, December 1, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 01/0159Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (04 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 070
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 006/005-006/005-022/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/20
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/65
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