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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, December 1, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 01/0159Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 070
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  006/005-006/005-022/032

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/65

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