From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 30, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Dec) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 30/1042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 072
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 072/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/15
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