Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 30, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Dec) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 30/1042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 072
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 072/070/070
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/15

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