From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, November 12, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 11/2331Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23581 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (15 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 069
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 070/073/073
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 006/005-012/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/40/35
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