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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, November 12, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 11/2331Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/1346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23581 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 069
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 070/073/073
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  006/005-012/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/40
Minor Storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/35

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