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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, November 11, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 10/2113Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1927Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25349 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Nov, 13 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 067
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 069/069/071
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  006/008-007/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/40
Minor Storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    20/15/55

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