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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, November 10, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 10/1257Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17453 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 069
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  014/020-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/15

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