From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, November 10, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 10/1257Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17453 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 069
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 018/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 014/020-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 45/20/15
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