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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 08/0004Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2066 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 068
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  026/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  031/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  029/040-023/032-019/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/45

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