From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 08/0004Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2066 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 068
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 026/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 031/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 029/040-023/032-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/50/45
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