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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 12, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/1503Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2482 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 070
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  024/035-020/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/55/45

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