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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 11/2029Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/1322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 070
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  013/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  023/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  024/030-024/035-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/60

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