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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 10/2016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 071
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  020/030-023/030-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    70/70/70

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