From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 9, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 09/0424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 072
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-017/025-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/65/65
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