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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 09/0424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 394 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 072
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  007/008-017/025-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/65/65

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