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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 8, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 08/1501Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 077
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 076/074/074
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  006/005-007/008-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/35
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/65

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