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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 6, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 06/1231Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3718 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Oct, 08 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 084
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 082/080/078
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  008/010-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/45/20

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