From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, August 10, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 10/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6774 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 071
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/40
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