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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 July 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, July 16, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/0235Z from Region 2665 (S06W70). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 16/2037Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 16/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 16/1040Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    30/30/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     30/30/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 087
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 085/080/074
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  027/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  020/030-011/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           35/15/05
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    80/50/30

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