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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, July 10, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/0031Z from Region 2665 (S06E11). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 10/0732Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 095
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  026/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  011/012-011/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/50/25

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