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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 June 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, June 17, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 16/1852Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 16/1009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0740Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 074
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  011/012-011/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/10

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