From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, June 17, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 16/1852Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 16/1009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0740Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 074
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 011/012-011/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/10
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