From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, June 14, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0401Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 074
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 012/015-015/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 40/20/15
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