From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 12/2346Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0032Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 075
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 075/075/074
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 007/008-012/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/40/20
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