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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 12/2346Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0032Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 075
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  010/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  007/008-012/015-015/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/20

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