From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 14/0428Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8795 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Mar, 16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 070
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/071
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20
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