From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 26, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 25/2234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 956 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 079
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 079/077/077
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/005-010/012-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/60
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