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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 January 2017

Status Report From:
Posted: Monday, January 9, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 747 km/s at 09/0337Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/1521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42125 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 071
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  010/008-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/30/40

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