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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, January 7, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 763 km/s at 07/0429Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/0051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22569 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 072
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 078

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    35/25/15

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