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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2017

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 5, 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 05/1503Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1823 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 073
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 072/071/071
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  014/018-011/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/30

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