From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 5, 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 05/1503Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1823 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 073
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 072/071/071
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 014/018-011/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/30
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