Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb)
and very low on day three (18 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft reached 393 km/s at 15/0135Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak flux of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 100
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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