Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0430Z from Region 1670 (N17W69). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on day one (15 Feb) and very low with a
slight chance for C-class flares on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 14/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10.6 nT at 13/2141Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.8 nT at 13/2141Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 100
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10

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