Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 February 2013

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 384 km/s at
11/2055Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 11/1539Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.7 nT at 10/2122Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Feb, 13
Feb, 14 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 105
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10

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