Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0640Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at
09/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 09/0114Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.4 nT at 09/0322Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet on days 1 and 2 (10-11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
for day 3 (12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 108
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10

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