Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2013

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, February 2, 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1958Z from Region 1667 (N23E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at
02/1457Z. Total IMF reached 11.5 nT at 02/0147Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8.5 nT at 02/0221Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (03 Feb, 04 Feb,
05 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 112
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/015-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/15

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